Optimism for humanity · science / engineering / business
Abundance by reaching beyond Earth, so we can de-risk and take better care of fragile life here. A living watch list of what is shipping and what is next. Politics out.
Unconfirmed items are marked. Cadence forecasts (daily Starship, million-ton Mars) are not treated as operational plans.
Dated events from the watch list · scroll →
SUCCESS. NASA 26-071: LC-39A. Sep ~31 min; boosters RTLS LZ-2/LZ-40; solar + shade ~1h23. L2 cruise. First images early 2027.
Classified NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 / TH-1. SLC-4E → OCISLY ~8.5 min. Third Lane-1 in ~1 month. SFN: B1097 13th — tracker-adjacent.
Beijing Huamao through 27 Sep; Shanghai HKRI window ended 21 Sep. First public Cybercab in China. Tesla China: no sale, no commercial robotaxi.
Priestley/FreightWaves 18 Sep: demos H1 2027, deliveries end-2027; first EU trucks from Nevada. >100 MW stalls / 21 sites; Basecharger €17k. No EU plant yet.
27 v2 Mini Optimized from VSFB SLC-4E. B1093 flight 17 → OCISLY Success. Deploy Success ~T+62 min (Space.com / SFN). 81st Starlink / 107th Falcon 9 of 2026.
SUCCESS Mon 28 Sep ~1249 UTC Pad 2. First stable orbit; Ship lost 1/6 Raptors on ascent, still inserted ~276 km; deployed 26 operational Starlink V3 (all contacted). Early deorbit; Ship splashdown N of Hawaii ~1557 UTC (~3h vs ~10h plan). Booster Gulf splashdown. FAA: no mishap investigation. Space.com / Ars / SFN.
SUCCESS Sat 26 Sep 1400 UTC (7:00 a.m. PT) SLC-4E. B1100 10th → OCISLY ~8.5 min. Classified Space Force; Starshield-class suspected (unconfirmed). Space.com / Teslarati.
Opened 24 Sep (CNBC). Priestley: 50k/year (~1k/week); >3,000 jobs; 98% uptime. Musk video. ZET SCALE primary OEM 2,500 held.
SUCCESS. Liftoff SLC-40 11:10 a.m. EDT; docked 7:05 p.m. EDT — 7 h 55 min (fastest US). Hatch 9:19 p.m. EDT. Handover Sun 4 (Meir→Dubrov). Crew-12 undocked Wed 7; SPLASH SUCCESS Thu 8 Oct 11:34 a.m. EDT (17:34 Zurich) Pacific off LA — Meir, Hathaway, Adenot (ESA), Fedyaev; 237 days; post-mission briefing Thu 15 Oct 3:30 p.m. EDT JSC (NASA).
SUCCESS. SLC-4E 11:32 a.m. PDT; B1082 25th → LZ-4. ~130 payloads incl. Google Project Suncatcher AI prototype. Same-day second Falcon after Crew-13.
SUCCESS. First NRO Falcon Heavy + NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2; LC-39A 11:54 p.m. ET (0354 UTC Fri 2). Side boosters LZ-1/LZ-2; center expended. Completes tripleheader with Crew-13 + Transporter-18.
SUCCESS Sat 10 Oct 12:39 a.m. PT (09:39 Zurich). 21 Northrop Grumman Transport Layer sats; B1103 6th → LZ-4. Fourth of nine T1 Falcon missions. SDA: on-orbit T1 SVs now 84 (was 63). SpaceX / SDA / Space.com.
SUCCESS. Liftoff Mon 12 Oct 5:28 p.m. PDT (00:28 UTC / 02:28 Zurich Tue) SLC-4E. 27 V2 Mini Optimized; B1088 20th → OCISLY ~8.5 min. SFN / Next Spaceflight.
DOCKED Harmony zenith 10:27 a.m. EDT Thu 15 (16:27 Zurich). Liftoff Tue 13 SUCCESS. >6,300 lb; final IROSA pair; return mid-Nov CA splash. NASA / SpaceX.
SUCCESS. Liftoff SLC-4E 5:01 p.m. PDT Thu 15 (02:01 Fri 16 Zurich). B1081 28th → OCISLY ~8.5 min; classified; TH-2; 114th Falcon 9 of 2026. SFN / Space.com.
Revenue $14.58B (+161%; LSEG est. $12.72B); net income $4.4B; adj. EBITDA $8.8B. SI $7.56B and first segment profit ($431M); Connectivity $5.25B (13.6M subs, ARPU $69); Space $1.77B. Capex $19.59B. Guide: Q4 capex $35–40B; Q1 2027 revenue $33–37B (est. ~$22.2B); $100B ARR at year-end on track. Musk: Tesla and SpaceX boards have formed merger special committees (no terms). SPCX ~+8% after hours.
FCC grant plus a waiver to sell service without a ground-carrier lease. EchoStar bands test-only until that deal closes (scheduled 30 Nov 2027). SpaceX target ~150 Mbps per user vs ~4 Mbps on V1. V2 sats need Starship, from 2027 (PCMag / SpaceNews). Plus Grain 800 MHz low-band deal (8 Oct; ~$8B reported; FCC approval pending). EU risk: Commission plans to reserve much of the 2 GHz D2D band for EU operators after May 2027. Mon 19: Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone signed an LOI for a joint 2 GHz bid (satellite partner to be selected). VEON: 11M people have used Starlink Mobile.
Day-120 window opened Fri 9 (up to 328.4M Class A). Tue 20 close $147.79 (−0.11%), ~+8% after hours on Q3. Up to 1.3B unlock Thu 22 Oct (two trading days after the print); next 328.4M on 24 Oct; rest 8 Dec. Eligible ≠ sold. Musk pledges one of his shares to every US child next year (~72M shares; no mechanism yet).
No SpaceX NET. CADENA provisional NET 8 Nov 2026 (was 19 Oct). NSF Fri 9: Ship 42 on third Massey’s cryo; Flight 16 / Starlink 30-1 provisional NET 10 Dec (possibly first LC-39A). Ship 40 now in Megabay for heatshield/Raptor teardown. NSF Sun 18: Ship 42 engines removed for extra cryoproof; B22 to Pad 2 static fire “within days”; Flight 16 likely B23/S43 in Dec. Q3 call Tue 20: Musk says Flight 15 comes “next month” and will try to catch both the booster and the Ship; Shotwell expects the FAA licence to cover both catches. Weekly Starship in H1 2027; refuelling early 2027. B22 static fire not yet confirmed.
Federal Register NOI: Phase 1 up to 100 launches + 200 landings/yr (any day); Phase 2 up to 456 + 912 (weekdays); wider landing areas. Current cap 25/yr. Meetings 17–19 Nov. A review start, not an approval.
Gold US-fleet Cybercab unveiled press day Mon 12 (Hall 7.1 C25; static, no rides); Optimus Gen 2; public 13–18 Oct; six FSD Supervised Model 3 demos. EU pages: Tesla Assisted Driving. Showcase, not a launch — TCMV Dec earliest.
REVEALED outdoor Waco/McGregor. Trims: Performance (road), Thrust (race), Rocket (air; not road-approved; invite). 300 mi / >230 mph. Prod 2028. Res $50k / $250k. FAA: not an aircraft. Pre-order terms: $5k + $245k in 10 days, delivery “cannot guarantee… if”. India reservations open (LHD first). Musk: autonomous stunts, Texas looping track.
8-K: Citi $20B 3y DDTL + Wells $8B 5y + $2B 364d; no 2026 draw planned; prior $5B revolver terminated. General corporate purposes.
Due 30 Oct 2026. Texas auth 739 = 319 Cybercab / 420 Model Y. Robotaxi Sat 10: 300+ Cybercabs serving Austin (8× in 30 days); Elluswamy “Dallas soon.” FMVSS self-cert still open. Not a recall.
Defect-petition review (not investigation yet). MY2026 Robotaxi Model Y + Cybercab alleged to speed in active school zones with ADS on. ~1,000 est.; 4 incidents; no crashes. Third federal robotaxi file in ~5 weeks.
Phased 24 months. Tesla IR still lists Nevada Semi as commissioning.
Austin 6 a.m.–midnight (Robotaxi + Cybercab, from Sat 17). Robotaxi Sat 10: 300+ Cybercabs serving Austin (company); TxDMV auth 739 = 319 Cybercab / 420 Model Y. Elluswamy: Dallas soon. 24/7 + FSD v15 still press target.
900,000-lb TBM delivered to Morgan’s Inclusion Campus for a ~1-mile accessible campus tunnel. TBC’s first Bexar County job. Tunneling after final permits; no completion date. Underground Construction / CBS Austin.
TBC 1 Oct update: MB1 + MB2 mining simultaneously; MB3 launches late Oct from a new two-TBM site; MB4 being built; goal four TBMs underground before end-2026. No passenger date.
NTA ceiling 5,000. Eric Early: happy at ~2,500 in a year; bottleneck is not FSD.
Official: prod 464,391 / del 486,532 / storage 13.7 GWh (beat consensus 461,974 del). Earnings + Q&A Wed 21 Oct 4:30 p.m. CT (23:30 Zurich); Say questions close Tue 20 Oct 4 p.m. EDT (22:00 Zurich). Consensus ~$28.06B rev / $0.45 EPS (Electrek; LSEG $27.88B / $0.43); Q3 FCF seen ~−$4.9B (Reuters). Analysts will now ask about the merger special committee. SEC Ex. 99.1.
Proxy filed Mon 19 Oct: re-elect Musk, Denholm and Straubel; advisory vote on 2025 pay ($158.36B, all stock); ratify PwC. No shareholder proposals and no merger vote. New standing retail-vote programme starts at the next meeting.
One-line status + next milestone
Q2: $28.2B rev · 480,126 delivered · 13.5 GWh storage · 1.48M FSD subs · FCF −$1.1B. 2026 capex >$25B. H1 BEV 838k vs BYD 867k.
Earnings tonight Wed 21 (23:30 Zurich): ~$28.1B / $0.45. Merger special committee formed (Musk, SpaceX call); no terms; needs 50% of all shares. FSD v14.3.13 adds Automatic Collision Evasion. Tue TSLA $373.71 (+1.54%). Annual meeting 3 Dec.
Q3 $14.58B rev (+161%) · net income $4.4B · SI $7.56B (first profit) · Connectivity $5.25B · 13.6M Starlink subs, ARPU $69 · capex $19.59B. Flight 14 first stable orbit (28 Sep).
Guide: Q4 capex $35–40B; Q1 2027 revenue $33–37B. Flight 15 “next month”, catch both stages. Merger committees formed. Up to 1.3B shares unlock Thu 22. Tue SPCX $147.79, ~+8% after hours.
SpaceX subsidiary (2 Feb). Flagship Grok 4.7 (21 Sep). AI segment loss-making and capex-heavy. Cursor closed 14 Aug at $60B.
SI segment Q3: $7.56B revenue, first operating profit ($431M). Grok Bot 800k paid weekly users; enterprise wide release “within a few weeks”. 440k Vera Rubin cluster by end Q2 2027. Grok 5 — no date.
Investigational. 21 Neuralnauts as of 28 Jan 2026. Zero serious device-related AEs. Four-country EFS plus VOICE.
Tesla proxy lists Musk as Neuralink CEO (19 Oct). 1 Oct: pretrain >50,000 h unlabeled neural data; median ~10 BPS; peak 11.32 BPS. Blindsight still upcoming.
Vegas Loop: >4M passengers, 11 open stations (airport T1/T3 listed open). Nashville MB1/MB2 running. Dubai under contract.
Prufrock-5 on site at Morgan’s Inclusion Campus, San Antonio (awaiting permits). Nashville MB3 late Oct; MB4 being built; four TBMs underground by YE (TBC 1 Oct). Dubai start late 2026.
~550M MAU (31 Mar) · 6.3M paid subs · Grok-feature MAU 117M. Ads ~$1.8B FY2025 is S-1-recap, not quoted from MD&A.
New AI/SI timeline ranking model + read-through retrieval model (Musk, 20 Oct). Android app rewrite. “Ok” to a better nationality filter for Swiss feeds. Q3 ad revenue $538M. X Money wider US rollout 2H 2026.
Raise the odds civilization has a future; then use energy, manufacturing, and intelligence to make that future abundant.
Canonical 2026 sitting: WEF Davos, 22 Jan 2026, Larry Fink.
Tue 20 ~04:00 → Wed 21 ~04:00 Zurich · SpaceX Q3 beat and guide; merger committees; Flight 15 dual catch
Revenue +161% vs ~$12.7B expected; SI $7.56B, now the biggest segment and profitable. Capex $19.59B. Guide: Q4 capex $35–40B, Q1 2027 revenue $33–37B. SPCX ~+8% after hours.
Musk on the call: both boards set up special committees of independent directors. “A good idea”, but “not a certainty”; no terms; Tesla needs 50% of all shares. Tesla reports tonight 23:30 Zurich.
Musk: Flight 15 “next month” will try to catch the booster and the Ship. Weekly Starship in H1 2027; refuelling early 2027. Bandwagon-5 flew the second Starfall capsule.
Meaningful, not marketing · from the dashboard